After more than 13 years of devastating conflict, the struggle to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime reached a dramatic and unexpected conclusion. On December 8, 2024, Assad’s government fell in a swift and coordinated campaign led by Syrian rebel forces, capitalizing on the regime’s weakened state and distracted allies.

This pivotal event marks a seismic shift in the Middle East's power dynamics, with profound implications not just for Syria's future but the broader region. In this piece, we explore the factors that led to the regime's abrupt collapse, identify the key players shaping Syria's future, and consider the broader regional impact. Finally, we offer guidance for businesses operating in the region on how to navigate the uncertainty ahead.

Recap of Events

In early December 2024, rebel forces led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a rapid, coordinated offensive from the Idlib province in north-west Syria, capturing key cities such as Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and finally Damascus. President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, where he was granted asylum by Russia. Assad’s government formally handed control of Syrian territory to the rebels, making HTS the de facto authority in a fractured and fragile state.

Several factors contributed to Assad’s sudden downfall:

• Weakened Allies: Assad’s primary allies, Iran and Hezbollah, were both preoccupied and weakened by escalating conflicts with Israel, while Russia scaled back its involvement in Syria due to its ongoing military engagements in Ukraine.

• Strengthened Opposition: Turkey’s strategic support to rebel forces, including HTS, played a decisive role, despite Turkey officially designating HTS as a terrorist organisation.

• Internal Turmoil: Since the onset of Syria's civil war in 2011, years of economic hardship and widespread public dissatisfaction have steadily eroded the regime’s stability. Assad’s military, exhausted and demoralized after over a decade of conflict, was ultimately unable to mount an effective defence against the advancing rebels.

Understanding HTS

HTS has emerged as the dominant rebel faction in Syria, commanding global attention following the collapse of Assad’s regime. Led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, HTS originated as the Nusra Front, established in 2011 as an affiliate of al-Qaeda. In 2016, Jawlani rebranded the group as HTS, severing formal ties with al-Qaeda and distinguishing itself from the global ambitions of the Islamic State.

Unlike the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, HTS positions itself as a Syrian-focused movement with national aspirations. Since 2017, it has consolidated control in Idlib, creating governance structures and providing limited public services. However, concerns about its ideological roots, history of associations, and ability to manage Syria’s diverse political and social landscape continue to cast a shadow over its legitimacy and long-term prospects.

Key Variable in the Future of Syria

Syria’s future remains highly uncertain, with several critical factors shaping its path:

• International Involvement: Syria’s future hinges on the involvement—or lack thereof—of its former backers, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, whose shifting priorities have left a power vacuum. Turkey, a key regional player, is likely to assert greater influence near its border, balancing its support for rebel factions with its opposition to Kurdish autonomy. These dynamics will determine whether Syria moves toward stability or faces further fragmentation and conflict.

• U.S. Policy: The U.S. has limited its involvement to targeted airstrikes aimed at preventing the Islamic State from exploiting the chaos. The Biden administration signals no deeper commitment to Syria and President-elect Trump’s comments suggest a larger trend of American restraint. Whether this hands-off approach persists will shape Syria’s geopolitical landscape.

• Kurdish Dynamics: The Kurdish semi-autonomous region in northeastern Syria, home to vital oil reserves, faces mounting pressure. HTS’s rise and its potential indebtedness to Turkey could jeopardize Kurdish autonomy, setting the stage for renewed conflict in these strategically significant areas. The handling of Kurdish demands will be crucial for regional stability.

• Designation of HTS: HTS remains classified as a terrorist organisation by the U.S., UN, EU, and Turkey, complicating its efforts to gain legitimacy or secure international aid. This designation undermines HTS's ability to govern effectively or participate in political processes, creating uncertainty about its long-term viability as a central authority in Syria.

Implications for Businesses

The recent developments in Syria introduce significant risks and uncertainties for businesses operating in the Middle East, requiring a proactive and strategic response:

• Risk Assessment: Organizations must conduct thorough evaluations of operational risks in an environment where shifting power balances and evolving alliances create unpredictable challenges. Identifying vulnerabilities and potential impacts on supply chains, infrastructure, and personnel is critical.

• Contingency Planning: Businesses should update and strengthen contingency plans to ensure the safety of personnel and the continuity of operations. This includes preparing for potential disruptions, such as geopolitical instability, energy supply constraints, or indirect impacts from regional conflicts.

• Stakeholder Engagement: Establishing and maintaining open lines of communication with local authorities, partners, and community leaders is vital. Proactive engagement enables businesses to stay informed of rapidly changing dynamics and adapt their strategies accordingly, ensuring resilience and operational stability.

The situation in Syria continues to evolve. As a senior Biden administration official put it: “This is just a fundamental change in the equation of the entire Middle East.” For businesses and organisations operating in the region, the need for vigilance remains great. Strategic planning, robust risk assessments, and staying informed through trusted sources are essential to navigating the challenges ahead. In this shifting security landscape, OpenHorizon provides timely intelligence updates and actionable insights.